Updated Version
July 2025
Kamal Aubakirov
(Word Count: 1208)

Can Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Ambitions Anchor It Between East and West?

Kazakhstan has officially named Russia’s RosAtom as the leader of the international consortium tasked with building its first nuclear power plant, a landmark decision announced on June 14 by the country’s Atomic Energy Agency. The facility will be developed in the town of Ulken, on the shore of Lake Balkhash, and will use Russia’s Generation III+ VVER-1200 reactors, the same model deployed in several of RosAtom’s recent international projects. After evaluating bids from China, France, and South Korea, Kazakhstan’s interagency commission selected RosAtom’s bid as the most advantageous, particularly given its offer of export financing. The choice reflects pragmatic cooperation, and officials made clear that Kazakhstan will retain full ownership of the project and maintain control over the entire fuel cycle.

More importantly, this is just the beginning. Earlier this year, President Tokayev announced plans to build at least three nuclear power plants, signaling the creation of a full-fledged nuclear cluster. While the first plant will be developed with Russian support and the second is expected to involve China’s CNNC, Kazakhstan’s broader vision is one of balance and diversification, leaving space for deeper Western engagement. As Western countries renew their commitment to nuclear energy in pursuit of clean energy goals, the question is increasingly clear: will they engage with Kazakhstan’s emerging nuclear strategy, or watch as others take the lead?

Kazakhstan’s Growing Energy Deficit and Climate Commitments
Kazakhstan’s energy demands are rapidly intensifying. Electricity consumption has grown from 83.9 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2020 to 90.9 TWh in 2024, and is projected to reach 111 TWh by 2035. In 2024 alone, Kazakhstan imported approximately 18 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, about 14 percent of its total consumption, primarily from Russia, marking a nearly fivefold increase over the previous year. Compounding the issue is the country’s aging infrastructure, with most thermal power plants operating for over 60 years.
Over the next decade, the Kazakh government estimates a need for at least 17.5 gigawatts of new capacity, structured across diverse energy sources: over 5.1 GW from gas, 2.1 GW from hydropower, 1.4 GW from coal, 6.5 GW from renewables, and 2.4 GW from the first nuclear power plant.
Aligning with its climate targets, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and reduce coal and gas reliance to 50% by 2050, Kazakhstan must rapidly develop a sustainable and reliable energy infrastructure. Nuclear power stands as a critical part of the solution to provide reliable, clean baseload generation. Yet, timing remains a concern. Alongside climate goals, Kazakhstan is pursuing the development of energy-intensive sectors such as AI infrastructure, including hyperscale data centers, and plans to launch a national crypto reserve. A key concern arises: will the nuclear plants planned with Russia and China come online quickly enough to address immediate demand?
The first nuclear power plant led by Russia aims for completion by 2035, involving investments between $10 and $15 billion. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar indicated that China, despite beginning construction later, may complete its plant earlier due to CNNC’s advanced small modular reactor technology, costing around $5.6 billion.
However, even in an optimal scenario without major delays or cost overruns, nuclear power alone cannot meet Kazakhstan’s near-term energy shortfalls. Coal, currently supplying roughly 70% of electricity, will remain dominant. To help bridge the gap, Kazakhstan is accelerating the expansion of renewable capacity, with approximately 456 MW expected from nine new solar and wind projects by 2025.
Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is enhancing regional cooperation, notably participating in the World Bank-backed Kambarata-1 hydropower project in Kyrgyzstan, slated to begin exporting electricity by 2028. While coal and gas will remain critical in the short term, the renewable sector is steadily growing. In the long run, nuclear power is expected to anchor Kazakhstan’s low-carbon ambitions, but it will serve as just one pillar of a broader, diversified energy strategy that must be reinforced with continued investment in renewables.

A Nuclear Renaissance in the West

Kazakhstan’s nuclear ambitions align closely with a broader global shift, as Western nations and institutions begin to reverse decades-long opposition to nuclear energy. The World Bank recently signaled its renewed willingness to finance nuclear energy projects after decades of hesitation. Likewise, the European Investment Bank has expressed support, and Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, now recognizes nuclear power as equivalent to renewables within EU frameworks.

Additionally, the COP28 summit in December 2023 saw over 20 nations, including the United States, France, and Japan, sign a declaration pledging to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Complementing this, U.S. President Trump’s May 2025 executive orders aims to quadruple U.S. nuclear power to about 400 GW by mid-century, highlighting the strategic importance of securing uranium supplies from geopolitically reliable partners like Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan’s Uranium Resources: A Gateway for Strategic Cooperation?
Kazakhstan holds the world’s largest uranium reserves, producing approximately 40 percent of global uranium in 2024. Its proven expertise in cost-effective, in-situ recovery mining positions it as a key strategic partner for Western nations aiming to expand nuclear capabilities and reduce reliance on Russian and Chinese uranium sources.

The recent appointment of French nuclear engineering firm Assystem as Kazakhstan’s technical advisor for the proposed international consortium spotlights growing Western involvement, aligning the country’s nuclear infrastructure with globally recognized standards. The potential participation of renowned Western companies, such as Constellation Energy, Westinghouse, or Kairos Power, among many others, in evaluating additional nuclear sites and future SMR projects can further consolidate these strategic partnerships.

Kazakhstan’s history of successful joint ventures, such as Tengiz and Kashagan oil fields with Chevron and Exxon, demonstrates its capacity for significant international collaborations. To replicate this success in the nuclear sector, Kazakhstan must establish clear regulatory frameworks and attractive economic incentives tailored to Western stakeholders. Collaborating closely with the private sector and institutions such as the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, and potentially entities like the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, that can provide equity guarantees will be crucial in laying the foundation for successful nuclear partnerships.

Balancing Great Powers Through Nuclear Pragmatism

Kazakhstan’s nuclear strategy reflects pragmatic geopolitical management. By selecting Russia’s RosAtom for the first project and announcing China’s CNNC for the second, Kazakhstan carefully balances its relationships with major powers, avoiding excessive reliance on any single partner. This “nuclear pragmatism” enables Kazakhstan to maximize technological advantages, financing opportunities, and geopolitical stability.

For Western nations, Kazakhstan’s growing civil nuclear program presents a timely opportunity to enhance regional stability and support the global energy transition. Engaging with Kazakhstan’s emerging nuclear cluster offers a strategic entry point for the West to influence Central Asia’s energy dynamics, traditionally dominated by Russian and Chinese interests. Future projects, including fuel technology, safety systems, workforce training, and the development of small modular and next-generation reactors, offer natural areas for Western engagement.

As global energy dynamics shift in response to climate goals and geopolitical realignments, Kazakhstan’s nuclear ambitions illustrate how nations can pursue complex international partnerships with both clarity and purpose. With Western countries now reversing course and embracing nuclear power as a central pillar of clean energy strategies, the moment to engage with Kazakhstan has never been timelier and more strategic. For Kazakhstan, this opens the door to long-term, durable partnerships that can reinforce its balanced approach to international engagement for decades to come.

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